🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Oxford United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Kassam Stadium, Regular Season - 28, as Oxford United and QPR drew 0-0 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oxford United 1.09 xG and QPR 0.98 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Oxford United fell 1.1 short of their projected output. QPR landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oxford United attack 0.79 / defence 1.03 against QPR attack 0.84 / defence 1.01, drawn from 72/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Oxford United 37% | Draw 31% | QPR 32%, with Oxford United to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oxford United 42%, QPR 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Oxford United's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

QPR's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Oxford United 1.06 PPG, QPR 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Oxford United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights