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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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QPR cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Oxford United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

QPR beat Oxford United 1-3 at The Kassam Stadium, Regular Season - 41, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oxford United 1.31 xG and QPR 1.03 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. QPR outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oxford United attack 0.92 / defence 1.23 against QPR attack 0.85 / defence 1.10, drawn from 40/86 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Oxford United 43% | Draw 28% | QPR 29%, with Oxford United to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual QPR win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oxford United 51%, QPR 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Oxford United's trading profile (86 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

QPR's trading profile (86 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Oxford United 1.43 PPG, QPR 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. Oxford United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. QPR (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights