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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Oxford United and Hull City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Oxford United and Hull City finished level at 1-1 at Kassam Stadium, Regular Season - 40, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oxford United 0.91 xG and Hull City 1.35 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oxford United attack 0.75 / defence 1.03 against Hull City attack 1.11 / defence 0.93, drawn from 85/85 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Oxford United 24% | Draw 30% | Hull City 46%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oxford United 42%, Hull City 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Oxford United's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Hull City's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Oxford United 1.08 PPG, Hull City 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights