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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Oxford United and Charlton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Oxford United and Charlton finished level at 1-1 at Kassam Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oxford United 0.98 xG and Charlton 1.00 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oxford United attack 0.72 / defence 1.03 against Charlton attack 0.82 / defence 1.05, drawn from 83/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Oxford United 33% | Draw 33% | Charlton 34%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oxford United 43%, Charlton 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Oxford United's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Charlton's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Charlton arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights