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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Wrexham defy the odds to beat Norwich 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wrexham beat Norwich 2-3 at Carrow Road, Regular Season - 6, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Norwich 1.52 xG and Wrexham 1.32 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Wrexham outscored their 1.32 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norwich attack 1.10 / defence 1.20 against Wrexham attack 0.95 / defence 1.09, drawn from 51/5 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Norwich 42% | Draw 25% | Wrexham 33%, with Norwich to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Wrexham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norwich 53%, Wrexham 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Norwich's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Wrexham's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Norwich (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wrexham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights