🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Norwich cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Stoke City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Norwich beat Stoke City 4-2 at Carrow Road, Regular Season - 34, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Norwich 1.96 xG and Stoke City 0.98 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Norwich beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stoke City outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norwich attack 1.36 / defence 1.17 against Stoke City attack 0.82 / defence 1.07, drawn from 79/78 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Norwich 60% | Draw 22% | Stoke City 18%, with Norwich to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norwich 54%, Stoke City 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Norwich's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Stoke City's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Norwich 1.42 PPG, Stoke City 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Norwich win broke the near-deadlock. Norwich (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stoke City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights