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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Norwich cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over QPR.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Norwich beat QPR 3-1 at Carrow Road, Regular Season - 18, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Norwich 0.90 xG and QPR 1.32 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Norwich beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norwich attack 0.77 / defence 1.27 against QPR attack 0.86 / defence 0.91, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Norwich 26% | Draw 28% | QPR 46%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Norwich win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norwich 51%, QPR 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Norwich's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

QPR's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Norwich 1.06 PPG, QPR 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Norwich win broke the near-deadlock. Norwich (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm. QPR (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights