🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Norwich and QPR share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Norwich and QPR finished level at 1-1 at Carrow Road, Regular Season - 24, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Norwich 1.99 xG and QPR 1.04 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Norwich fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norwich attack 1.50 / defence 1.28 against QPR attack 0.79 / defence 0.93, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Norwich 58% | Draw 23% | QPR 18%, with Norwich to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norwich 59%, QPR 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Norwich's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

QPR's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Norwich 1.43 PPG, QPR 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Norwich (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights