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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Norwich and Oxford United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Carrow Road, Regular Season - 36, as Norwich and Oxford United drew 1-1 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Norwich 2.10 xG and Oxford United 0.73 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Norwich fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norwich attack 1.46 / defence 1.22 against Oxford United attack 0.57 / defence 1.07, drawn from 81/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Norwich 69% | Draw 20% | Oxford United 11%, with Norwich to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norwich 55%, Oxford United 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Norwich's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Oxford United's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Norwich 1.47 PPG, Oxford United 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Norwich (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights