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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Leicester edge out Norwich 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Leicester beat Norwich 1-2 at Carrow Road, Regular Season - 15, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Norwich 1.07 xG and Leicester 1.43 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norwich attack 0.79 / defence 1.28 against Leicester attack 0.96 / defence 1.10, drawn from 60/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Norwich 28% | Draw 26% | Leicester 45%, with Leicester to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norwich 52%, Leicester 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Norwich's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Leicester's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Norwich 1.04 PPG, Leicester 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leicester win broke the near-deadlock. Norwich (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward. Leicester (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights