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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ipswich cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Norwich.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ipswich beat Norwich 0-2 at Carrow Road, Regular Season - 42, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Norwich 1.49 xG and Ipswich 1.40 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Norwich fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norwich attack 0.98 / defence 0.94 against Ipswich attack 1.25 / defence 1.17, drawn from 87/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Norwich 38% | Draw 28% | Ipswich 34%, with Norwich to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Ipswich win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norwich 51%, Ipswich 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Norwich's trading profile (77 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Ipswich's trading profile (77 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Norwich 1.29 PPG, Ipswich 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ipswich win broke the near-deadlock. Norwich (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward. Ipswich (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights