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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Championship · Regular Season - 44

Kick-off

Tue 21 Apr 2026

19:45

Venue

Carrow Road

Competition

Championship

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Derby Win

34%

Norwich

2.96

30%

Draw

3.38

37%

Derby

2.73

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.4%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

9.6%

Away win

1 – 0

9.2%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.29

Norwich xG

Total xG

2.65

1.35

Derby xG

34%
30%
37%
NorwichDrawDerby

2.96

34%

Home win

3.38

30%

Draw

2.73

37%

Away win

Goals Markets

74%

Over 1.5

1.35

26%

Under 1.5

3.85

49%

Over 2.5

2.04

51%

Under 2.5

1.96

27%

Over 3.5

3.70

73%

Under 3.5

1.37

13%

Over 4.5

7.69

87%

Under 4.5

1.15

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

56%

BTTS Yes

1.80

44%

BTTS No

2.25

Clean Sheet

26%

Norwich

3.87

27%

Derby

3.64

Win to Nil

9%

Norwich

11.48

10%

Derby

9.91

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.1 9.6 6.5 2.9 1.0 0.3
1 9.2 12.4 8.4 3.8 1.3 0.3
2 5.9 8.0 5.4 2.4 0.8 0.2
3 2.5 3.4 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1
4 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1
5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.291
λ Away (xG) 1.354
Total xG 2.645
League avg home goals 1.269
League avg away goals 1.170
Norwich attack strength 0.920
Norwich defence strength 0.996
Derby attack strength 1.162
Derby defence strength 1.106
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 89 / 89