🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Norwich defy the odds to beat Coventry 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Norwich beat Coventry 2-1 at Carrow Road, Regular Season - 29, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Norwich 1.18 xG and Coventry 1.76 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Norwich beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norwich attack 0.79 / defence 1.13 against Coventry attack 1.36 / defence 1.09, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Norwich 24% | Draw 26% | Coventry 50%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Norwich win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norwich 51%, Coventry 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Norwich's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Coventry's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Coventry arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Norwich winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights