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Prediction vindicated as Norwich edge out Charlton 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Norwich beat Charlton 1-0 at Carrow Road, Regular Season - 23, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Norwich 1.30 xG and Charlton 1.06 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Charlton landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norwich attack 0.91 / defence 1.17 against Charlton attack 0.78 / defence 1.02, drawn from 68/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Norwich 41% | Draw 30% | Charlton 30%, with Norwich to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norwich 52%, Charlton 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Norwich's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Charlton's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Charlton arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with Norwich winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Norwich (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights