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Shock result as Burnley defy the odds to beat Norwich 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Burnley beat Norwich 1-2 at Carrow Road, Regular Season - 21, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Norwich 1.30 xG and Burnley 1.15 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Burnley outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norwich attack 1.54 / defence 1.23 against Burnley attack 0.91 / defence 0.62, drawn from 66/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Norwich 38% | Draw 31% | Burnley 31%, with Norwich to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Burnley win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norwich 57%, Burnley 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Norwich's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Burnley's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Norwich 1.45 PPG, Burnley 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. Norwich (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights