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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Millwall and Sheffield Utd share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at The Den, Regular Season - 30, as Millwall and Sheffield Utd drew 1-1 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Millwall 1.89 xG and Sheffield Utd 1.07 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Millwall fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Millwall attack 1.11 / defence 0.91 against Sheffield Utd attack 1.01 / defence 1.27, drawn from 75/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Millwall 55% | Draw 24% | Sheffield Utd 20%, with Millwall to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Millwall 37%, Sheffield Utd 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Millwall's trading profile (75 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Sheffield Utd's trading profile (75 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Millwall 1.53 PPG, Sheffield Utd 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights