Millwall vs QPR – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Millwall at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Millwall vs QPR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Den plays host to Millwall versus QPR in Championship, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 21 November 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Millwall have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Millwall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Millwall at The Den this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Millwall are significantly better at The Den than their overall form suggests.
QPR's overall Championship record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, QPR have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Millwall against 1.30 for QPR. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Millwall, who have won 6 of the last 10 meetings against QPR — a 2D 2W return for the visitors.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 2–0 with Millwall winning.
The historical record gives Millwall a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Millwall — key trading statistics (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
QPR — key trading statistics (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Millwall 49% versus QPR 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Millwall 51% | QPR 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Millwall 1.88 xG and QPR 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Millwall attack 1.195 / defence 0.996 | QPR attack 0.873 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.283. Data: 59 Millwall games / 59 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Millwall 55% | Draw 23% | QPR 22%. Fair-value odds: Millwall 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | QPR 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Millwall (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Millwall at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Millwall 30% | QPR 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Millwall vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: The Den • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Millwall 55% | Draw 23% | QPR 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Millwall 1.88 / QPR 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Millwall attack 1.195 / def 0.996 | QPR attack 0.873 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Millwall (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Millwall xG
Expected Goals
1.11
QPR xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Millwall vs QPR kick off?
Millwall vs QPR is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at The Den.
Where is Millwall vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at The Den.
What competition is Millwall vs QPR part of?
Millwall vs QPR is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Millwall vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Millwall a 55% chance of winning, QPR a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Millwall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Millwall vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Millwall and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Millwall vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and QPR?
Record (10 meetings): Millwall 6W | Draws 2 | QPR 2W.
What form are Millwall and QPR in?
Millwall (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. QPR (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Millwall's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against QPR's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. Flip it around — QPR's attack (0.87x) against Millwall's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Millwall Win
55%
1.81
23%
4.44
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Millwall xG
Total xG
3.00
1.11
QPR xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
15%
6.58
Win to Nil
18%
5.52
3%
29.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.5 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Millwall vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Millwall and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Millwall and 1.11 for QPR, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Millwall vs QPR?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Millwall come into this having played 59 games, going 28W 15D 16L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-W. The sample for Millwall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, QPR sit at 1.32 PPG from 59 outings (21W 15D 23L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.68 PPG for Millwall against 1.32 for QPR. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Millwall's home form reads 16W 5D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, QPR have taken 1.13 points per game from 30 outings (8W 10D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Millwall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Millwall are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.39 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: QPR in 63%.
Defensively: Millwall have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Millwall
Blended
QPR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Millwall and QPR in coming into this match?
Millwall have gone 28W 15D 16L in their last 59 games (1.68 PPG), while QPR have gone 21W 15D 23L in their last 59 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Millwall at home or QPR away?
Millwall's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Millwall at home: 1.77 PPG; QPR away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Millwall or QPR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Millwall have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, QPR in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Millwall go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Millwall have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against QPR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Millwall
2
Draws
2
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and QPR?
From 10 meetings on record, Millwall have won 6, QPR have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Millwall and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Millwall 2-0 QPR.
Who has won more matches between Millwall and QPR?
Millwall have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Millwall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Millwall 40%, QPR 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Millwall) and 50% (QPR).
On the defensive side: Millwall keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; QPR in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Millwall home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Millwall play QPR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Millwall's recent matches and 57% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Millwall vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Millwall's recent games and 50% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Millwall and QPR tend to score early?
Millwall have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, QPR in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.