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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Millwall cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over QPR.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Millwall beat QPR 2-0 at The Den, Regular Season - 43, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Millwall 1.42 xG and QPR 1.06 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. QPR landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Millwall attack 1.06 / defence 1.03 against QPR attack 0.88 / defence 1.05, drawn from 88/88 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Millwall 44% | Draw 30% | QPR 26%, with Millwall to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Millwall 40%, QPR 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Millwall's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

QPR's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Millwall 1.58 PPG, QPR 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Millwall win broke the near-deadlock. Millwall (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.98 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights