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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Millwall and Preston share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at The Den, Regular Season - 15, as Millwall and Preston drew 1-1 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Millwall 1.16 xG and Preston 1.14 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Millwall attack 0.95 / defence 0.95 against Preston attack 1.04 / defence 0.99, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Millwall 36% | Draw 28% | Preston 35%, with Millwall to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Millwall 35%, Preston 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Millwall's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Preston's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Millwall 1.50 PPG, Preston 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights