Millwall 0-2 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Millwall at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Millwall vs Hull City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Millwall and Hull City meet at The Den in Championship (Semi-finals). This fixture gets under way on Monday 11 May 2026 at 21:00 UK time.
Current Form
Millwall's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Millwall's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Hull City (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Hull City have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Millwall's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Hull City's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Across the 9 H2H matches in our data, Hull City have the stronger record — 4 wins to Millwall's 1, with 4 draws.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 9 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 8 May 2026, ended Millwall 0–0 Hull City — a draw.
Hull City have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 9 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Data
Millwall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 93 games, 46 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Hull City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 93 games, 46 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Millwall 46% versus Hull City 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Millwall 39% | Hull City 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Millwall 1.52 xG and Hull City 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Millwall attack 1.086 / defence 0.873 | Hull City attack 1.034 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.210. Data: built from Millwall's last 92 games and Hull City's last 92.
Result probabilities: Millwall 46% | Draw 29% | Hull City 26%. Fair-value odds: Millwall 2.20 | Draw 3.48 | Hull City 3.89. Millwall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Millwall are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Millwall if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Millwall 50% (last 10 home games) | Hull City 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Millwall vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Semi-finals | Venue: The Den • Kick-off: Monday 11 May 2026 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Millwall 46% | Draw 29% | Hull City 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Millwall 1.52 / Hull City 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Millwall attack 1.086 / def 0.873 | Hull City attack 1.034 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Millwall (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Millwall xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Hull City xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Millwall vs Hull City FAQs
What time does Millwall vs Hull City kick off?
Millwall vs Hull City kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Monday 11 May 2026 at The Den.
What was the final score in Millwall vs Hull City?
Millwall 0 - 2 Hull City.
Where is Millwall vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at The Den.
What competition is Millwall vs Hull City part of?
Millwall vs Hull City is a Championship fixture (Semi-finals) (England).
Who is favourite to win Millwall vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Millwall a 46% chance of winning, Hull City a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Millwall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Millwall vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Millwall and Hull City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Millwall vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Millwall's attack rating (1.09) and Hull City's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (1.03x) against Millwall's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from Millwall's last 92 games and Hull City's last 92 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Millwall Win
46%
2.20
29%
3.48
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Millwall xG
Total xG
2.61
1.09
Hull City xG
2.20
46%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
6%
17.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.2 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Millwall vs Hull City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Millwall vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Millwall and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Millwall and 1.09 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Millwall vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Millwall's recent record stands at 42W 24D 27L from 93 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five.
Hull City, meanwhile, have gone 33W 24D 36L across 93 games — 1.32 PPG, with D-D-L-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.61 PPG for Millwall against 1.32 for Hull City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Millwall have managed 25W 7D 14L from their last 46 home games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hull City's away record stands at 17W 10D 19L across their last 46 away games, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Millwall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Millwall are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.23 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Millwall have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 93 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Millwall
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
Millwall (Home) vs Hull City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Millwall
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
❓ Millwall vs Hull City Form FAQs
What form are Millwall and Hull City in coming into this match?
Millwall have gone 42W 24D 27L in their last 93 games (1.61 PPG), while Hull City have gone 33W 24D 36L in their last 93 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Millwall at home or Hull City away?
Millwall's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Millwall at home: 1.78 PPG; Hull City away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Millwall or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Millwall have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Hull City in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 11 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Millwall have gone 0W 2D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Millwall
4
Draws
5
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Millwall vs Hull City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Hull City?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Millwall have won 1, Hull City have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Millwall and Hull City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 May 2026: Millwall 0-2 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Millwall and Hull City?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Millwall see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Millwall 39%, Hull City 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Millwall) and 48% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Millwall keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Hull City in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Millwall home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Millwall vs Hull City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Millwall and Hull City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Millwall's recent matches and 52% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Millwall and Hull City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Millwall's recent games and 48% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Millwall and Hull City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Millwall's recent matches and 63% of Hull City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hull City cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Millwall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Millwall 0-2 at The Den, Semi-finals, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Millwall 1.52 xG and Hull City 1.09 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Millwall fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Hull City outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Millwall attack 1.09 / defence 0.87 against Hull City attack 1.03 / defence 1.05, drawn from 92/92 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Millwall 46% | Draw 29% | Hull City 26%, with Millwall to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Hull City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Millwall 39%, Hull City 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Millwall's trading profile (93 games, 46 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Hull City's trading profile (93 games, 46 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Millwall 1.61 PPG, Hull City 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Millwall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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