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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Hull City cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Millwall.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hull City beat Millwall 1-3 at The Den, Regular Season - 21, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Millwall 1.43 xG and Hull City 1.31 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Hull City outscored their 1.31 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Millwall attack 0.95 / defence 0.90 against Hull City attack 1.21 / defence 1.09, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Millwall 39% | Draw 27% | Hull City 34%, with Millwall to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Hull City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Millwall 35%, Hull City 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Millwall's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Hull City's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Millwall 1.53 PPG, Hull City 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Millwall (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights