Millwall 4-1 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Millwall at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Millwall vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Derby travel to The Den to take on Millwall. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 October 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Millwall — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Millwall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Millwall's home record at The Den: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Championship appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Championship matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Derby have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Millwall 0.90 PPG, Derby 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Millwall have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 6 past contests while Derby have managed just 0 wins.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2026, ended 1–0 with Millwall winning.
The historical record gives Millwall a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Millwall trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Derby trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Millwall 48% versus Derby 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Millwall 50% | Derby 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Millwall 1.73 xG and Derby 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Millwall attack 1.061 / defence 1.008 | Derby attack 0.913 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.283. Data: 58 Millwall games / 58 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Millwall 50% | Draw 24% | Derby 26%. Fair-value odds: Millwall 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Derby 3.85. Millwall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Millwall are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Millwall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Millwall 30% | Derby 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Millwall vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: The Den • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Millwall 50% | Draw 24% | Derby 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Millwall 1.73 / Derby 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Millwall attack 1.061 / def 1.008 | Derby attack 0.913 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Millwall (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Millwall xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Derby xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Millwall vs Derby kick off?
Millwall vs Derby kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at The Den.
What was the final score in Millwall vs Derby?
Millwall 4 - 1 Derby.
Where is Millwall vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at The Den.
What competition is Millwall vs Derby part of?
Millwall vs Derby is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Millwall vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Millwall a 50% chance of winning, Derby a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Millwall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Millwall vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Millwall and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Millwall vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Derby?
Record (6 meetings): Millwall 3W | Draws 3 | Derby 0W.
What form are Millwall and Derby in?
Millwall (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Derby (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Millwall's attack at 1.06x the league average against Derby's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Millwall's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Millwall Win
50%
1.99
24%
4.21
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Millwall xG
Total xG
2.91
1.18
Derby xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
15%
6.49
5%
21.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.1 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Millwall vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Millwall and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Millwall and 1.18 for Derby, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Millwall vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Millwall's recent record stands at 27W 15D 16L from 58 games, a 1.66 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Millwall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby, meanwhile, have gone 21W 13D 24L across 58 games — 1.31 PPG, with D-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Millwall on 1.66 PPG, Derby on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Millwall have managed 15W 5D 9L from 29 games — 1.72 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derby's away record stands at 11W 5D 13L across 29 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Millwall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Millwall are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.33 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derby in 64%.
Defensively: Millwall have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Millwall
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Millwall and Derby in coming into this match?
Millwall have gone 27W 15D 16L in their last 58 games (1.66 PPG), while Derby have gone 21W 13D 24L in their last 58 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Millwall at home or Derby away?
Millwall's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Millwall at home: 1.72 PPG; Derby away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Millwall or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Millwall have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Derby in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Millwall have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Oct 2026, when Millwall won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Millwall's record when hosting Derby specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Millwall
3
Draws
0
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Derby?
From 7 meetings on record, Millwall have won 4, Derby have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Millwall and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Millwall 4-1 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Millwall and Derby?
Millwall have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Millwall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Millwall 38%, Derby 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Millwall) and 62% (Derby). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Millwall keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Millwall home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Millwall play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Millwall's recent matches and 66% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Millwall vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Millwall's matches and 62% of Derby's.
Do Millwall and Derby tend to score early?
Millwall have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Derby in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Millwall run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Derby.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Millwall beat Derby 4-1 at The Den, Regular Season - 13, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Millwall 1.73 xG and Derby 1.18 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Millwall beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Millwall attack 1.06 / defence 1.01 against Derby attack 0.91 / defence 1.11, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Millwall 50% | Draw 24% | Derby 26%, with Millwall to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Millwall 50%, Derby 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Millwall's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Derby's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Millwall 1.66 PPG, Derby 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Millwall win broke the near-deadlock. Millwall (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.