Millwall vs Derby – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Millwall (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Millwall face Derby.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Derby travel to The Den to take on Millwall. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 October 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Millwall — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Millwall have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Millwall's home record at The Den: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Championship appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Den. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Championship matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Derby have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Championship this season, Derby have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Millwall are in the better shape of the two on current Championship data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Millwall have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 6 past contests while Derby have managed just 0 wins.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2026, ended 1–0 with Millwall winning.
The historical record gives Millwall a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Millwall trading profile (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Derby trading profile (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Millwall 44% versus Derby 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Millwall 48% | Derby 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Millwall 1.92 xG and Derby 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Millwall attack 1.239 / defence 0.920 | Derby attack 0.968 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.264. Data: 51 Millwall games / 51 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Millwall 53% | Draw 28% | Derby 19%. Fair-value odds: Millwall 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Derby 5.26. Millwall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Millwall are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Millwall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Millwall 20% | Derby 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Millwall vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: The Den • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Millwall 53% | Draw 28% | Derby 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Millwall 1.92 / Derby 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Millwall attack 1.239 / def 0.920 | Derby attack 0.968 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Millwall (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Millwall xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Derby xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Millwall vs Derby kick off?
Millwall vs Derby is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at The Den.
Where is Millwall vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at The Den.
What competition is Millwall vs Derby part of?
Millwall vs Derby is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Millwall vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Millwall a 53% chance of winning, Derby a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Millwall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Millwall vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Millwall and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Millwall vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Derby?
Record (6 meetings): Millwall 3W | Draws 3 | Derby 0W.
What form are Millwall and Derby in?
Millwall (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Derby (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Millwall's attack at 1.24x the league average against Derby's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Millwall's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Millwall Win
53%
1.88
28%
3.61
19%
5.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Millwall xG
Total xG
3.05
1.13
Derby xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
5.23
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
15%
6.85
Win to Nil
17%
5.80
3%
35.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.3 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Millwall vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Millwall and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Millwall and 1.13 for Derby, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Millwall vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Millwall's recent record stands at 26W 12D 14L from 52 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Millwall, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Derby, meanwhile, have gone 21W 10D 21L across 52 games — 1.40 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Derby, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Millwall on 1.73 PPG, Derby on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Millwall have managed 15W 3D 8L from 26 games — 1.85 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derby's away record stands at 11W 3D 12L across 26 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Millwall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Millwall are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.38 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derby in 62%.
Defensively: Millwall have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Millwall
Early Season
Derby
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Millwall and Derby in coming into this match?
Millwall have gone 26W 12D 14L in their last 52 games (1.73 PPG), while Derby have gone 21W 10D 21L in their last 52 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Millwall at home or Derby away?
Millwall's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Millwall at home: 1.85 PPG; Derby away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Millwall or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Millwall have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Derby in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 10 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Millwall's record when hosting Derby specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Millwall
3
Draws
0
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Derby?
From 6 meetings on record, Millwall have won 3, Derby have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Millwall and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2026, when Millwall 1-0 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Millwall and Derby?
Millwall have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Millwall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Millwall 35%, Derby 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Millwall) and 65% (Derby). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Millwall keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Millwall home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Millwall play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Millwall's recent matches and 62% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Millwall vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Millwall's matches and 65% of Derby's.
Do Millwall and Derby tend to score early?
Millwall have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Derby in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.