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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Championship · Regular Season - 28

Kick-off

Tue 21 Jan 2025

20:00

Venue

The Den

Competition

Championship

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Millwall Win

38%

Millwall

2.66

33%

Draw

3.03

29%

Cardiff

3.40

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

14.5%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

13.5%

Draw

0 – 0

13.3%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.09

Millwall xG

Total xG

2.02

0.93

Cardiff xG

38%
33%
29%
MillwallDrawCardiff

2.66

38%

Home win

3.03

33%

Draw

3.40

29%

Away win

Goals Markets

60%

Over 1.5

1.67

40%

Under 1.5

2.50

33%

Over 2.5

3.03

67%

Under 2.5

1.49

15%

Over 3.5

6.67

85%

Under 3.5

1.18

5%

Over 4.5

20.00

95%

Under 4.5

1.05

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

41%

BTTS Yes

2.42

59%

BTTS No

1.70

Clean Sheet

39%

Millwall

2.53

34%

Cardiff

2.96

Win to Nil

15%

Millwall

6.74

10%

Cardiff

10.07

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 13.3 12.4 5.8 1.8 0.4 0.1
1 14.5 13.5 6.2 1.9 0.4 0.1
2 7.9 7.3 3.4 1.1 0.2
3 2.8 2.6 1.2 0.4 0.1
4 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1
5 0.2 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.086
λ Away (xG) 0.929
Total xG 2.015
League avg home goals 1.368
League avg away goals 0.994
Millwall attack strength 0.685
Millwall defence strength 0.870
Cardiff attack strength 1.074
Cardiff defence strength 1.160
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 72 / 73