Sign in Register
🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Championship · Semi-finals

Kick-off

Sat 9 May 2026

12:30

Venue

Riverside Stadium

Competition

Championship

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Middlesbrough Win

37%

Middlesbrough

2.74

28%

Draw

3.61

36%

Southampton

2.80

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.5%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

8.4%

Home win

1 – 2

8.3%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.47

Middlesbrough xG

Total xG

2.91

1.45

Southampton xG

37%
28%
36%
MiddlesbroughDrawSouthampton

2.74

37%

Home win

3.61

28%

Draw

2.80

36%

Away win

Goals Markets

79%

Over 1.5

1.27

21%

Under 1.5

4.76

56%

Over 2.5

1.79

44%

Under 2.5

2.27

33%

Over 3.5

3.03

67%

Under 3.5

1.49

17%

Over 4.5

5.88

83%

Under 4.5

1.20

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

60%

BTTS Yes

1.66

40%

BTTS No

2.52

Clean Sheet

24%

Middlesbrough

4.25

23%

Southampton

4.33

Win to Nil

9%

Middlesbrough

11.65

8%

Southampton

12.10

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.4 7.9 5.7 2.7 1.0 0.3
1 8.0 11.5 8.3 4.0 1.5 0.4
2 5.8 8.4 6.1 2.9 1.1 0.3
3 2.8 4.1 3.0 1.4 0.5 0.2
4 1.0 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1
5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.465
λ Away (xG) 1.448
Total xG 2.913
League avg home goals 1.329
League avg away goals 1.210
Middlesbrough attack strength 1.020
Middlesbrough defence strength 0.821
Southampton attack strength 1.457
Southampton defence strength 1.081
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 92 / 46