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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Championship · Regular Season - 26

Kick-off

Sun 4 Jan 2026

15:00

Venue

Riverside Stadium

Competition

Championship

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Middlesbrough Win

47%

Middlesbrough

2.15

25%

Draw

3.98

28%

Southampton

3.54

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.3%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

9.4%

Home win

1 – 0

9.0%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.66

Middlesbrough xG

Total xG

2.91

1.25

Southampton xG

47%
25%
28%
MiddlesbroughDrawSouthampton

2.15

47%

Home win

3.98

25%

Draw

3.54

28%

Away win

Goals Markets

79%

Over 1.5

1.27

21%

Under 1.5

4.76

56%

Over 2.5

1.79

44%

Under 2.5

2.27

33%

Over 3.5

3.03

67%

Under 3.5

1.49

17%

Over 4.5

5.88

83%

Under 4.5

1.20

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

58%

BTTS Yes

1.71

42%

BTTS No

2.40

Clean Sheet

29%

Middlesbrough

3.49

19%

Southampton

5.28

Win to Nil

13%

Middlesbrough

7.49

5%

Southampton

18.69

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.4 6.8 4.2 1.8 0.6 0.1
1 9.0 11.3 7.1 2.9 0.9 0.2
2 7.5 9.4 5.9 2.4 0.8 0.2
3 4.2 5.2 3.3 1.4 0.4 0.1
4 1.7 2.2 1.4 0.6 0.2
5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.664
λ Away (xG) 1.250
Total xG 2.914
League avg home goals 1.385
League avg away goals 1.115
Middlesbrough attack strength 0.964
Middlesbrough defence strength 0.944
Southampton attack strength 1.187
Southampton defence strength 1.247
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 71 / 25