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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Middlesbrough cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over QPR.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Middlesbrough beat QPR 3-1 at Riverside Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Middlesbrough 1.46 xG and QPR 1.05 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Middlesbrough beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Middlesbrough attack 1.05 / defence 1.02 against QPR attack 0.86 / defence 1.01, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Middlesbrough 46% | Draw 27% | QPR 27%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Middlesbrough 48%, QPR 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Middlesbrough's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

QPR's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Middlesbrough 1.56 PPG, QPR 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Middlesbrough win broke the near-deadlock. Middlesbrough (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. QPR (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights