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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Middlesbrough run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Preston.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Middlesbrough beat Preston 4-0 at Riverside Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Middlesbrough 1.28 xG and Preston 1.05 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Middlesbrough beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Preston landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Middlesbrough attack 1.11 / defence 0.86 against Preston attack 1.06 / defence 0.86, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Middlesbrough 41% | Draw 30% | Preston 30%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Middlesbrough 49%, Preston 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Middlesbrough's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Preston's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Middlesbrough 1.57 PPG, Preston 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Middlesbrough win broke the near-deadlock. Middlesbrough (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Preston (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights