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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Middlesbrough and Leicester share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Middlesbrough and Leicester finished level at 1-1 at Riverside Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Middlesbrough 1.96 xG and Leicester 0.81 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Middlesbrough fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Middlesbrough attack 1.14 / defence 0.68 against Leicester attack 1.00 / defence 1.32, drawn from 79/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Middlesbrough 63% | Draw 23% | Leicester 14%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Middlesbrough 54%, Leicester 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Middlesbrough's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Leicester's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Middlesbrough arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Leicester (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights