Middlesbrough vs Charlton – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Middlesbrough at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Middlesbrough vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 13 as Middlesbrough welcome Charlton to Riverside Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 October 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Middlesbrough have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Middlesbrough have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Middlesbrough's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Riverside Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charlton stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Charlton have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Championship this season, Charlton have posted 2W 6D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Middlesbrough 1.50 PPG, Charlton 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Middlesbrough register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Charlton in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Middlesbrough, 1 for Charlton and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Charlton winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Middlesbrough in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Charlton in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Middlesbrough 60% versus Charlton 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Middlesbrough 54% | Charlton 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Middlesbrough 1.93 xG and Charlton 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Middlesbrough attack 1.197 / defence 0.908 | Charlton attack 0.911 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.264. Data: 51 Middlesbrough games / 51 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Middlesbrough 55% | Draw 28% | Charlton 17%. Fair-value odds: Middlesbrough 1.82 | Draw 3.57 | Charlton 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Middlesbrough (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Middlesbrough are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Middlesbrough 60% | Charlton 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Middlesbrough vs Charlton | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Riverside Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Middlesbrough 55% | Draw 28% | Charlton 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Middlesbrough 1.93 / Charlton 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Middlesbrough attack 1.197 / def 0.908 | Charlton attack 0.911 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Middlesbrough (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Middlesbrough xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Charlton xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Middlesbrough vs Charlton kick off?
Middlesbrough vs Charlton is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Riverside Stadium.
Where is Middlesbrough vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Riverside Stadium.
What competition is Middlesbrough vs Charlton part of?
Middlesbrough vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Middlesbrough vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Middlesbrough a 55% chance of winning, Charlton a 17% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Middlesbrough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Middlesbrough vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Middlesbrough and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Middlesbrough vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Middlesbrough and Charlton?
Record (2 meetings): Middlesbrough 1W | Draws 0 | Charlton 1W.
What form are Middlesbrough and Charlton in?
Middlesbrough (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Charlton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Middlesbrough's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Charlton's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Middlesbrough's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Middlesbrough Win
55%
1.82
28%
3.62
17%
5.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Middlesbrough xG
Total xG
2.97
1.04
Charlton xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
5.78
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
15%
6.86
Win to Nil
19%
5.16
3%
39.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.3 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Middlesbrough vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Middlesbrough and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Middlesbrough and 1.04 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Middlesbrough vs Charlton?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Middlesbrough's recent record stands at 23W 16D 13L from 52 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Middlesbrough, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Charlton, meanwhile, have gone 16W 16D 20L across 52 games — 1.23 PPG, with W-W-D-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Charlton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Middlesbrough on 1.63 PPG, Charlton on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Middlesbrough have managed 13W 7D 5L from 25 games — 1.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charlton's away record stands at 5W 10D 10L across 25 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Middlesbrough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Middlesbrough are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 0.96 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Middlesbrough
Early Season
Charlton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Middlesbrough and Charlton in coming into this match?
Middlesbrough have gone 23W 16D 13L in their last 52 games (1.63 PPG), while Charlton have gone 16W 16D 20L in their last 52 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Middlesbrough at home or Charlton away?
Middlesbrough's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Middlesbrough at home: 1.84 PPG; Charlton away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Middlesbrough and Charlton runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 11 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Middlesbrough
0
Draws
1
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Middlesbrough and Charlton?
From 2 meetings on record, Middlesbrough have won 1, Charlton have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Middlesbrough and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2026, when Middlesbrough 0-1 Charlton.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Middlesbrough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Charlton see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Middlesbrough 52%, Charlton 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Middlesbrough) and 40% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Middlesbrough keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Middlesbrough have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Middlesbrough home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Middlesbrough play Charlton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Middlesbrough's games and 60% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Middlesbrough vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Middlesbrough's recent games and 40% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Middlesbrough and Charlton tend to score early?
Middlesbrough have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Charlton in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.