Middlesbrough 0-0 Burnley – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Burnley at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Middlesbrough vs Burnley encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Riverside Stadium plays host to Middlesbrough versus Burnley in Championship, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 29 December 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Middlesbrough's overall Championship record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Middlesbrough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Middlesbrough's home record at Riverside Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Championship appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Burnley (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Championship outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Burnley have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Burnley arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Middlesbrough 0W, Burnley 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Middlesbrough — key trading statistics (61 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Burnley — key trading statistics (61 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Middlesbrough 56% versus Burnley 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Middlesbrough 51% | Burnley 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Middlesbrough 0.90 xG and Burnley 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Middlesbrough attack 1.132 / defence 1.187 | Burnley attack 1.100 / defence 0.567. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.020. Burnley's defence strength of 0.567 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 69 Middlesbrough games / 23 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Middlesbrough 24% | Draw 30% | Burnley 46%. Fair-value odds: Middlesbrough 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | Burnley 2.17. Burnley hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burnley at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burnley if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Middlesbrough 40% | Burnley 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Middlesbrough vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Riverside Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Dec 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Middlesbrough 24% | Draw 30% | Burnley 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Middlesbrough 0.90 / Burnley 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Middlesbrough attack 1.132 / def 1.187 | Burnley attack 1.100 / def 0.567 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.020 • Poisson stance: Burnley (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Middlesbrough xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Burnley xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Middlesbrough vs Burnley kick off?
Middlesbrough vs Burnley kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 29 December 2024 at Riverside Stadium.
What was the final score in Middlesbrough vs Burnley?
Middlesbrough 0 - 0 Burnley.
Where is Middlesbrough vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Riverside Stadium.
What competition is Middlesbrough vs Burnley part of?
Middlesbrough vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Middlesbrough vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Middlesbrough a 24% chance of winning, Burnley a 46% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Middlesbrough vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Middlesbrough and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Middlesbrough vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Middlesbrough and Burnley?
Record (3 meetings): Middlesbrough 0W | Draws 1 | Burnley 2W.
What form are Middlesbrough and Burnley in?
Middlesbrough (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Burnley (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Middlesbrough's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Burnley's defensive record (0.57x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (1.10x) against Middlesbrough's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 69/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.6%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
24%
4.12
30%
3.31
46%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Middlesbrough xG
Total xG
2.24
1.33
Burnley xG
4.12
24%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.20
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
41%
2.47
Win to Nil
6%
15.60
18%
5.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 14.3 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Middlesbrough vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Middlesbrough and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Middlesbrough and 1.33 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Middlesbrough vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Middlesbrough come into this having played 61 games, going 29W 13D 19L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-D. The sample for Middlesbrough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Burnley sit at 1.16 PPG from 61 outings (18W 17D 26L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Middlesbrough carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Burnley — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Middlesbrough's home form reads 15W 6D 10L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Burnley have taken 1.23 points per game from 31 outings (10W 8D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Middlesbrough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Middlesbrough are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.16 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Middlesbrough
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Middlesbrough and Burnley in coming into this match?
Middlesbrough have gone 29W 13D 19L in their last 61 games (1.64 PPG), while Burnley have gone 18W 17D 26L in their last 61 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Middlesbrough at home or Burnley away?
Middlesbrough's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Middlesbrough at home: 1.65 PPG; Burnley away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 2 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Middlesbrough have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Burnley — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Middlesbrough
3
Draws
2
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Middlesbrough and Burnley?
From 5 meetings on record, Middlesbrough have won 0, Burnley have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Middlesbrough and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2026, when Burnley 1-1 Middlesbrough.
Who has won more matches between Middlesbrough and Burnley?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Middlesbrough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Middlesbrough 42%, Burnley 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Middlesbrough) and 45% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Middlesbrough keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Burnley in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Middlesbrough home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Middlesbrough play Burnley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Middlesbrough's recent matches and 52% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Middlesbrough vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Middlesbrough's recent games and 45% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Middlesbrough and Burnley tend to score early?
Middlesbrough have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Burnley in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Middlesbrough's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Middlesbrough and Burnley finished level at 0-0 at Riverside Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Middlesbrough 0.90 xG and Burnley 1.33 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Middlesbrough fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Burnley landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Middlesbrough attack 1.13 / defence 1.19 against Burnley attack 1.10 / defence 0.57, drawn from 69/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Middlesbrough 24% | Draw 30% | Burnley 46%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Middlesbrough 51%, Burnley 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Middlesbrough's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Burnley's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Middlesbrough arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Middlesbrough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.