Middlesbrough vs Blackburn – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Middlesbrough's attack at 1.07x the league average against Blackburn's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Blackburn's attack versus Middlesbrough's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Middlesbrough Win
41%
2.44
29%
3.44
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Middlesbrough xG
Total xG
2.63
1.19
Blackburn xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
12%
8.05
7%
14.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.4 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Middlesbrough vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Middlesbrough and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Middlesbrough and 1.19 for Blackburn, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Middlesbrough vs Blackburn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.