🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Leicester edge out West Brom 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Leicester beat West Brom 2-1 at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 1.63 xG and West Brom 1.06 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 1.01 / defence 1.16 against West Brom attack 0.81 / defence 1.16, drawn from 25/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leicester 50% | Draw 26% | West Brom 24%, with Leicester to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 62%, West Brom 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leicester's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

West Brom's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Leicester 0.94 PPG, West Brom 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leicester win broke the near-deadlock. Leicester (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights