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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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QPR cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Leicester.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

QPR beat Leicester 1-3 at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 1.39 xG and QPR 1.12 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. QPR outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 0.98 / defence 1.26 against QPR attack 0.74 / defence 1.10, drawn from 37/83 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leicester 42% | Draw 29% | QPR 29%, with Leicester to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual QPR win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 60%, QPR 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leicester's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

QPR's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Leicester 0.92 PPG, QPR 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. Leicester (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual. QPR (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights