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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Leicester and Preston share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Leicester and Preston finished level at 2-2 at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 40, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 1.38 xG and Preston 1.30 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 0.96 / defence 1.38 against Preston attack 0.80 / defence 1.11, drawn from 39/85 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leicester 38% | Draw 28% | Preston 34%, with Leicester to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 60%, Preston 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leicester's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Preston's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Leicester 0.91 PPG, Preston 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Leicester (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm. Preston (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights