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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Leicester and Portsmouth share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 10, as Leicester and Portsmouth drew 1-1 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 0.99 xG and Portsmouth 0.84 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 0.85 / defence 0.83 against Portsmouth attack 0.88 / defence 0.95, drawn from 9/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leicester 38% | Draw 33% | Portsmouth 30%, with Leicester to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 57%, Portsmouth 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leicester's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Portsmouth's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Portsmouth arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights