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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Oxford United defy the odds to beat Leicester 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Oxford United beat Leicester 1-2 at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 1.45 xG and Oxford United 1.04 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Oxford United outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 1.04 / defence 1.15 against Oxford United attack 0.79 / defence 1.03, drawn from 28/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leicester 46% | Draw 28% | Oxford United 26%, with Leicester to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Oxford United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 62%, Oxford United 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leicester's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Oxford United's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Leicester 0.95 PPG, Oxford United 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oxford United win broke the near-deadlock. Oxford United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights