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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Leicester and Millwall share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 45, as Leicester and Millwall drew 1-1 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 0.96 xG and Millwall 1.91 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Millwall landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 0.96 / defence 1.36 against Millwall attack 1.18 / defence 0.78, drawn from 44/90 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leicester 17% | Draw 24% | Millwall 58%, with Millwall to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 58%, Millwall 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leicester's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Millwall's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Millwall arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights