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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Leicester cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Ipswich.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Leicester beat Ipswich 3-1 at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 1.15 xG and Ipswich 1.62 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Leicester beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 0.87 / defence 1.16 against Ipswich attack 1.16 / defence 0.95, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leicester 26% | Draw 26% | Ipswich 48%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Leicester win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 59%, Ipswich 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leicester's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Ipswich's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Leicester 0.91 PPG, Ipswich 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leicester win broke the near-deadlock. Leicester (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm. Ipswich (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights