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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Leicester and Hull City share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Leicester and Hull City finished level at 2-2 at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 44, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 1.13 xG and Hull City 1.70 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Leicester beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 0.92 / defence 1.36 against Hull City attack 1.07 / defence 0.97, drawn from 43/89 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leicester 24% | Draw 27% | Hull City 49%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 58%, Hull City 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leicester's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Hull City's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Hull City arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Leicester (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights