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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Leicester defy the odds to beat Derby 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Leicester beat Derby 2-1 at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 1.13 xG and Derby 1.62 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Leicester beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 0.95 / defence 1.19 against Derby attack 1.18 / defence 0.85, drawn from 23/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leicester 26% | Draw 27% | Derby 48%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Leicester win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 61%, Derby 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leicester's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Derby's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Leicester 0.92 PPG, Derby 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leicester win broke the near-deadlock. Leicester (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights