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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Leeds and West Brom share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Leeds and West Brom finished level at 1-1 at Elland Road, Regular Season - 35, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leeds 2.23 xG and West Brom 0.61 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Leeds fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leeds attack 1.62 / defence 0.64 against West Brom attack 0.93 / defence 1.01, drawn from 80/80 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leeds 74% | Draw 17% | West Brom 9%, with Leeds to win its most likely call at 74%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leeds 49%, West Brom 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leeds's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

West Brom's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Leeds arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.55. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Leeds (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights