🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Leeds edge out Preston 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Leeds beat Preston 2-1 at Elland Road, Regular Season - 42, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leeds 2.11 xG and Preston 0.69 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leeds attack 1.53 / defence 0.79 against Preston attack 0.87 / defence 1.07, drawn from 87/87 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leeds 70% | Draw 19% | Preston 11%, with Leeds to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leeds 48%, Preston 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leeds's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.

Preston's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Leeds arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights