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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ipswich cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sheffield Wednesday.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ipswich beat Sheffield Wednesday 3-1 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 22, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.36 xG and Sheffield Wednesday 0.88 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Ipswich beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 0.99 / defence 0.81 against Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.90 / defence 0.99, drawn from 21/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ipswich 47% | Draw 29% | Sheffield Wednesday 24%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 56%, Sheffield Wednesday 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ipswich's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ipswich 0.95 PPG, Sheffield Wednesday 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ipswich win broke the near-deadlock. Ipswich (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm. Sheffield Wednesday (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights