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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Ipswich run riot with a 3-0 hammering of QPR.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ipswich beat QPR 3-0 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 46, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.61 xG and QPR 0.84 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Ipswich beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. QPR landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 1.15 / defence 0.86 against QPR attack 0.81 / defence 1.07, drawn from 45/91 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ipswich 54% | Draw 28% | QPR 18%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 54%, QPR 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ipswich's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

QPR's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ipswich 1.24 PPG, QPR 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ipswich win broke the near-deadlock. Ipswich (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.49 average — tighter than their form line. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights