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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ipswich and Middlesbrough share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Portman Road, Regular Season - 43, as Ipswich and Middlesbrough drew 2-2 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.41 xG and Middlesbrough 1.23 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 1.15 / defence 0.82 against Middlesbrough attack 1.29 / defence 0.96, drawn from 41/88 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ipswich 39% | Draw 30% | Middlesbrough 31%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 53%, Middlesbrough 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ipswich's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Middlesbrough's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ipswich 1.23 PPG, Middlesbrough 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights