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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ipswich and Leicester share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Portman Road, Regular Season - 36, as Ipswich and Leicester drew 1-1 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 2.01 xG and Leicester 0.83 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Ipswich fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 1.23 / defence 0.69 against Leicester attack 1.00 / defence 1.25, drawn from 34/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ipswich 64% | Draw 23% | Leicester 14%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 56%, Leicester 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ipswich's trading profile (72 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Leicester's trading profile (72 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ipswich 1.18 PPG, Leicester 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Leicester (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights