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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Ipswich edge out Hull City 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ipswich beat Hull City 1-0 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 32, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.36 xG and Hull City 1.19 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hull City landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 1.25 / defence 0.77 against Hull City attack 1.28 / defence 0.83, drawn from 33/80 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ipswich 39% | Draw 29% | Hull City 31%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 56%, Hull City 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ipswich's trading profile (71 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Hull City's trading profile (71 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ipswich 1.15 PPG, Hull City 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ipswich win broke the near-deadlock. Ipswich (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights