🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Coventry at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ipswich vs Coventry encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 19 as Ipswich welcome Coventry to Portman Road. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 December 2025 at 15:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Championship games this season, Ipswich have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ipswich, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Ipswich's home record at Portman Road: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Championship appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Coventry stand at 9W 0D 1L from 10 Championship matches — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Coventry, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Coventry's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form points away from home here. Coventry's 2.70 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Ipswich's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ipswich register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Coventry in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Ipswich have won 2, Coventry 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2024, ended 2–1 with Ipswich winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Ipswich trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 30% of games.

Coventry trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ipswich 62% versus Coventry 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 55% | Coventry 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 1.21 xG and Coventry 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 0.925 / defence 0.986 | Coventry attack 1.601 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.248. Coventry have an above-average attack strength of 1.601 — the away xG of 1.97 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 18 Ipswich games / 64 Coventry games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ipswich 23% | Draw 22% | Coventry 55%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 4.35 | Draw 4.55 | Coventry 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Coventry (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.21 / 1.97) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Coventry at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ipswich 60% | Coventry 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights