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Dominant Charlton run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Ipswich.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charlton beat Ipswich 0-3 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 11, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.97 xG and Charlton 0.86 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Ipswich fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Charlton outscored their 0.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 1.46 / defence 1.06 against Charlton attack 0.70 / defence 1.11, drawn from 9/10 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ipswich 63% | Draw 22% | Charlton 15%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Charlton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 57%, Charlton 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ipswich's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Charlton's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Charlton arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.74. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ipswich (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights