🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Hull City edge out West Brom 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hull City beat West Brom 1-0 at MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.76 xG and West Brom 1.38 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. West Brom landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 1.04 / defence 1.24 against West Brom attack 0.92 / defence 1.22, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hull City 46% | Draw 24% | West Brom 30%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 43%, West Brom 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hull City's trading profile (67 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

West Brom's trading profile (67 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hull City 1.24 PPG, West Brom 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. West Brom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights